(AP Photo/John Dunn)

Biggie asks: I love the Grandy Man, but with the 2014 budget in mind do you think it would be wise to re-sign Nick Swisher, pick up Curtis Granderson‘s option and then trade him (similar to Gary Sheffield)? Granderson’s defense, strikeouts, and relying on two things that age saps (homers and speed) makes a long-term deal scary for me. Thoughts?

I’m not a big fan of doing that. When the Yankees traded Sheffield after 2006, they did so because they already had a viable replacement in-house (Bobby Abreu). The internal replacement for Granderson is … Zoilo Almonte? Melky Mesa? Chris Dickerson? Nope, they aren’t cutting it. The free agent alternatives aren’t very appealing either, whether they keep Swisher or not.

Perhaps there’s a scenario in which the Yankees dish Granderson for prospects that they could then turn around and include in a package for Justin Upton — essentially a three-team trade — but that doesn’t seem very realistic. A lot of things had to fall into place to pull off the original three-team deal that brought him to New York in the first place. Doing it again isn’t impossible, just unlikely.

At the end of the day, I have a very hard time seeing a way the Yankees could trade Granderson this offseason while actually improving the team. The goal is still to win now, and Curtis helps them do that. Unless Swisher winds up getting Jayson Werth-type offers, I would prefer to see the Yankees bring him back and let Granderson walk after 2013. He’s a bit younger, I think he’s a better bet to remain productive going forward, and I think the contract will be more palpable. There are a lot of assumptions with that obviously, but that’s all we can do until we see what the market says the value of these two is after the season.

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

Mailbag: Trading Curtis Granderson

(Mike Stobe/Getty Images)

The Yankees went through a pretty rough slump a few weeks ago, starting out on the West Coast in Oakland and carrying over into the last homestand. They have started to get their mojo back though, most notably battling back to split a four-game series with the Tigers in Detroit after losing the first two games. They’ve won nine of their last 13 games overall, and two of those four losses came at the hands of Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander. That will happen from time to time.

One player who has most certainly not gotten his mojo back is Curtis Granderson. The 31-year-old outfielder is stuck in a 1-for-18 rut at the moment, but this is something that goes back much further than the last week. Granderson is hitting just .205/.266/.419 since the All-Star break and .215/.306/.415 in his last 281 plate appearances (!) overall. That dates back to early-June, so we’re creeping farther and farther away from small sample size territory. After hitting a robust .262/.364/.552 (146 wRC+) last year, Grandy is down to just .236/.330/.480 (116 wRC+) with roughly six weeks to go this year.

I’ve noticed two things about Curtis during this slide that may or may not be meaningful in terms of the root cause for this slump. For one, he’s just flat out missing hittable pitches. We all know about the strikeout issues — 28.2 K% on the year and 30.6 K% during this 281 PA sample — but I’m talking specifically about pitches out over the plate that he’s either fouling off, putting into play weakly, or just whiffing on. Here is a look at Granderson’s strike zone plot during his 281 PA slump, courtesy of Joe Lefkowitz’s site…

There’s an awful lot going on here and a whole bunch of clutter, but just focus on the blue — those are the swings and misses. There’s a whole bunch in the dirt from breaking balls and whatnot, but there’s also a bunch right out over the plate. This isn’t any kind of definitive proof that he’s missing hittable pitches, but it certainly jives with the theory. Granderson has always swung and missed a bunch, that’s just who he is, but some of those pitches — particularly the fastballs, the blue +’s — he should be hitting hard somewhere.

Secondly, Curtis doesn’t seem to be pulling the ball as much as usual. Chad Jennings made the same observation last night, so at least I know my eyes aren’t playing tricks on me. Last season, Granderson pulled 53.6% of his balls in play to right field while 30.1% went back up the middle and and just 16.2% went the other way to left. As you’d expect, he did most of his damage yanking the ball to right — 304 wRC+ pull, 120 wRC+ center, 26 wRC+ left. This season he’s at 50.4% pulled (196 wRC+), 30.0% center (63 wRC+), and 19.5% opposite (64 wRC+). Not much of a difference in terms of quantity, but he isn’t getting the same kind of results on balls back up the middle. Here’s a look at his spray chart during this 281 PA slide, courtesy of Texas Leaguers…

That is a pretty evenly distributed spray chart, especially for a guy who is — or at least should be — a dead pull hitter. Earlier this season I noted that Granderson was hitting some more line drive singles to shallow left, but I don’t think this is a case of a guy making a conscious decision to try to go the other way without getting the results, a la Mark Teixeira back in April and May. Granderson just seems to be fouled up, either physically, mechanically, mentally, whatever. He certainly isn’t getting the results he has been getting for the last two calendar years, and you can see that something is off by watching him everyday. You don’t need to be a hitting guru to see when someone isn’t right, but you do need to be one to fix it.

Granderson’s slump is something that predates his ill-fated stint as a leadoff hitter, and is something he and hitting coach Kevin Long need to figure out relatively soon. The work they did in August 2010 was almost literally an overnight fix; he went from being a straight platoon guy to an MVP-caliber hitter in the span of like, 36 hours. That isn’t the norm though, these things tend to take some time. The Yankees are scheduled to face three real tough lefties — Derek Holland, Franklin Morales, and Jon Lester — from Thursday through Saturday, so that might be a good time to give Curtis some time off just to recharge the batteries. He can get off his feet (he’s played the field a ton this year due to Brett Gardner‘s injury, so maybe he’s just worn out), clear his head a bit, and hit the cages hard in an effort to get back to being the impact hitter he’s expected to be. Right now, he’s close to a dead spot in the lineup.

Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog

The Curtis Granderson Slump

How many times has this happened to you?  You live in Tampa.  You can’t watch the Yankees on MLB.tv because, as the log-in error message states, you used a left-handed keyboard to enter your password on the holiest day on the Druid calendar.  So, you’re forced to listen to John Sterling’s broadcast on ESPN radio.  After Sterling mistakes about fifty in-field pop-flies for home runs, he finally calls a Granderson mash into the upper decks of right field correctly.

In the euphoric state that follows, your brain releases endorphins which cause you to momentarily forget what’s coming next.  You don’t turn off your Smartphone fast enough.  John Sterling starts singing his “Grandyman Can” song.  It enters your head.

“Oh, the Grandyman can!…”.

It’s too late!  You can’t un-hear it.  You quickly try to cleanse the impurity that has desecrated your auditory canals by pumping Metallica’s Disposable Heroes at high volume through your headphones. You even close your eyes and start violently nodding your head to and fro, but to no avail, you can’t get it out.  Your ear drums have been permanently profaned.

I don’t blame Curtis Granderson though.  I actually like him.  I liked the trade that brought him to New York.  I like his 95 home runs, 252 runs and 290 RBIs as a Yankee.  I loved his 2011 season when he hit 41 home runs, 119 RBIs and scored 136 times.  As my BBD colleague Chris Barca noted yesterday, he finished fourth in MVP voting and the Yankees will almost certainly pick up his 2013 option to the tune of $13 million for the year.  But I hope they don’t.  If you delete 2011 his offensive productivity is merely above average and his defense is truly offensive.  If 2011 hadn’t happened, this wouldn’t even be a discussion.  Betting on another 2011-like season is foolish at best, especially as he advances past the 31 year age-meridian-line.

The time has come to let him walk.  Or we can keep him and watch him strike out  a lot Again!

It’s not simply a matter of his projected cost.  The Yankees already have more than their fair share of social security-contracts.  A-Rod will be paid through his 42nd birthday, Derek Jeter through his 40th, and CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira through their 36th.  Should the Yankees re-sign Granderson, they likely will pay him Andre Ethier-type money, on the order of $16 or so million per year for four or five years through at least his 36th birthday.  That would double his current contract average of $8 million per year (which concludes with either a $13 million option or a $2 million buyout) during an age span where history and biology dictate that skills generally decline.

Lesser known amongst his statistics are ones which I’m sure his agent, Matt Brown, will probably try to either hide, ignore, or challenge the validity of, when broached during contract talks.  In Pinstripes, Granderson has amassed a -22.4 UZR and 423 strike outs.  This is simply another way of stating that Granderson can neither play defense nor make his opponents play any.  Or, alternatively, if you pasted his Fathead likeness to a piece of cardboard, then propped it up with a stick in centerfield, you’d get only slightly less defensive production.  This year, his 138 strike outs ranks him second in baseball (thank God for Adam Dunn!) and his .258 batting average is pulling the Yankee’s team average (.266) down.  Granderson currently ranks second in home runs tied with Josh Hamilton (30) behind, you guessed it, Adam Dunn (31).  Interestingly, Granderson and Dunn each have WARs well below their Colleagues-of-Swat.  Dunn’s is 1.6 and Granderson’s is holding steady at two.  Meanwhile, Hamilton’s is 4.1, Ryan Braun, Miguel Cabrera, Edwin Encarnacion, Mark Trumbo and Josh Willingham, all of whom are tied for fourth place with 29 home runs apiece, have WARs respectively of 5.5, 4.7, 3.6, 3.0 and 3.7.  In other words, Granderson is going to have to keep hitting 40+ home runs per year to offset his horrible defense and to justify being one player above replacement level.  The Yankees would have little choice but to play him in the field since A-Rod’s ridiculous contract all but locks him into the DH spot for the next five years.

Even if Granderson’s contractual expectations turn out to be more reasonable than predicted, he still doesn’t fit into what appears to be the direction of the new and improved New York Yankees.  The Steinbrenner Bros Austerity Plan (SBAP) aside, the Yankees have approximately $80 million tied up in only four players – Sabathia, Jeter, Teixeira, and A-Rod next year.  I doubt that the SBAP will actually become reality in 2014, but it will provide the cause célèbre for Cashman to seek out certain player prototypes and to justify player salary caps.  The Yankees, in other words, will be seeking both bats AND gloves from here on.  And while there is no bigger fan of the home run than yours truly, if I had to choose a single Most Valuable  Statistic (MVS), for me it’s Base-Out Percentage.  A player’s BOP indicates the ratio of his bases to outs.  To give a brief explanation, you shouldn’t be in the majors with a BOP of less than .5, unless you are a pitcher; .6 is above average and .8 is Barry Bonds.  Curtis Granderson, as of Wednesday night, posted a BOP of .67 which is above average.  While it has been all but determined by the commentariat that Granderson will be re-signed at the expense of Nick Swisher, it should be noted that Swisher’s BOP is approaching great at .75.  That’s the second-highest BOP on the Yankees, Robinson Cano’s .78 being the highest.  Furthermore, his UZR is at least approaching above-average at .6.  Add to that the fact that two of Swisher’s slash numbers are better than Granderson’s (.261/.345/.458 compared to .242/.337/.494) and that he is cheaper should translate into a deal.

Granderson doesn’t fit into the Yankees’ long term plans.  Hopefully, Cashman will make this as painless as possible and buyout Granderson’s remaining year rather than pick up his option.  We move Brett Gardner to centerfield, keep Swisher in right and maybe re-sign Ichiro Suzuki and/or Raul Ibanez to play left.  Gardner, you will recall, played centerfield, along with Melky Cabrera, in 2009.  His UZR/150 (a metric which predicts UZR across 150 games) is a RIDICULOUS 17.1.  Or we trade, or pick up a free agent, or pull up a prospect or two from Triple A.  Any of these options represents a guaranteed upgrade defensively and savings that might be used to buy something the Yankees really need – a young, ground-ball inducing pitcher.

And of course, there’s the added advantage that the“Grandyman” songs would stop.

Curtis Granderson is annoying.  As a man, he seems like one of the nicest, most well spoken guys in the league.  But as a baseball player, he’s more frustrating than a blown save or stranding runners in scoring position with less than two outs.

For the last season and a half, Granderson has become an “all or nothing” player at the plate.  This has prompted many fans and beat writers alike to openly discuss whether the Yankees should let Granderson walk once he hits free agency after the 2013 season in order to get under that arbitrary $189 million 2014 budget set by the front office.  (His option for 2013 will certainly be picked up).  I understand the reasons for possibly letting Grandy go after 2013 and at times I even consider joining the “let him walk” camp, but I feel like, barring catastrophic injury or remarkable regression next season, the Yankees should explore resigning Granderson long term, as long as the price isn’t astronomical.

Before we get into the on-field product, let’s look at the most important factor in deciding Granderson’s fate, money.  If Curtis Granderson asks for a lengthy contract at over $20-22 million a season, he’s out of his mind and I won’t lose a minute’s sleep over him skipping town.  We’ve seen teams recently overspend for solid (not superstar) outfielders, only for it to backfire in their face, with Jayson Werth’s 7 year, $126 million dollar deal as a prime example.  But there are plenty of comparable outfielders who have recently signed semi-respectable and realistic deals, like Hunter Pence, Corey Hart and even Ryan Braun.  Braun, steroid scandal aside, is a legitimate superstar who is better than Granderson in every facet of the game with the bat, and his recently signed five year extension has him making an average of $20 million a season.  With the market for sub-superstar outfielders not being as pricey as it is for corner infielders or pitchers, it’s realistic to think that Granderson can be had for something in the neighborhood of five years, $80-85 million, similar to that of Andre Ethier (six years, $95 million).  That possible deal would take Granderson through his age-37 season.  Not young, but not terribly ancient either.  The question then becomes whether or not the Yankees can afford both Granderson and Robinson Cano.

If Granderson signs this hypothetical $16 million per year deal, the Yankees will have $94.5 million tied up in just five players (Grandy, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, and CC Sabathia).  If the Yankees can sign Cano to something around $20 million per year, that leaves around $85 million to spend on the other 19 men on the roster.  An extremely difficult task that will hopefully be made easier by having Michael Pineda under cheap team control as well as possibly having a few young prospects like David Phelps, Corban Joseph, or maybe even Mason Williams playing for cheap as well.  But there are so many determining factors that have to fall into place before 2014, that it’s almost impossible to speculate.

Now, back to Granderson.

When Curtis Granderson is locked in, there are few players in baseball better than him.  He quite literally owns the second deck in right field and hammers righties and lefties alike.  Over his two and a half seasons with the Yankees, he owns a .252/.344/.510/.854 slash line, more than acceptable for a two hitter who bats behind one of the greatest top of the order hitters of our generation, Derek Jeter, and ahead of arguably the best pure hitter in baseball, Robinson Cano.  Hence, the amount of runs he can drive in and score are plentiful, and Granderson has delivered.  He led the American League in both runs batted in (119) and runs scored (136) in 2011, a rare feat indeed.  He also tripled ten times and swiped 25 bases, good for a fourth place finish in MVP voting.  Granderson has slightly regressed from last year’s amazing year, but he’s still second in the majors in home runs (30), seventh in plate appearances (489), and fourth in runs scored (78).  But arguably his best statistic is his durability, as he’s played in every single game this season except one, and he missed just six last year.  Granderson trotting out to centerfield to begin each ballgame is basically set in stone, and that’s something that’s hard to find either in the minor leagues or the free agent market.  I know sabermetricians and UZR supporters will probably stone me to death for saying this, but Granderson also possesses a solid glove with impressive speed and range in centerfield, and when paired with his bat, he’s someone that would be very hard to replace.  When it comes to 2014 free agency, Jacoby Ellsbury is the only true centerfielder who could be considered on the same level as Curtis Granderson, but if he replicates his MVP type season in 2013, he will absolutely be too expensive for the Yankees if they stay true to their alleged budget.  Corey Hart, Hunter Pence, Nelson Cruz, and Mike Morse are corner outfielders that will be available and while the Yankees could hypothetically move Brett Gardner (if he’s still on the team) to centerfield, Granderson would seem to be the most logical solution.

While Granderson may not be grand in terms superstardom, he certainly is a run creating machine right in the middle of a very potent lineup.  It remains to be seen how Granderson will perform for the remainder of the season and his following contract year, but if they’re anything like his past year and a half with the Bombers, I certainly wouldn’t be opposed to exploring a contract in order to keep him here long term.

Stay tuned for Mark Panuthos’ rebuttal this weekend.

Yankees fans are starting to turn on Curtis Granderson and it’s not exactly hard to see why. His numbers are down from a year ago, his defense has taken a big hit, and Alex Rodriguez is on the DL (that last one is supposed to be a joke).

Granderson played one of the better seasons a Yankee has played in recent years last year when he hit .262/.364/.552. He also stole a few bases and more or less played solid defense. This year his numbers are down. He’s hitting .240/.335/.487 and his UZR has dropped along with it from negative-5.1 last season to negative-15.9 so far this year.

To make things worse, Granderson has actually struggled more as the season has progressed, hitting .220/.314/.422 since June 2.

One thing that has affected Granderson this year is that teams have begun shifting on him more often. We saw it right away this year when the Rays began using extreme shifts against him right away. It’s probably a big reason his batting average on balls in play of .279 is below his career norm of .308.

But Granderson’s biggest problem is not the shift or his BABIP. His problem is that he hasn’t been putting the ball in play nearly enough. His strikeout rate is going through the roof.

During his career, Grandy has struck out in 22.6 percent of his plate appearances. Not an impressive number, but it certainly wouldn’t be the worst in the league. In his first year with the Yankees he struck out 22 percent of the time. Then 24.5 percent last season and now it’s up to 27.9 percent this season.

Going back to June 2nd (when his numbers really dropped this season), he has struck out in a whopping 30.2 percent of his at bats. If it weren’t for a hot start, that number would be good enough for the 3rd worst in all of MLB.

Granderson’s problem is that he’s chasing more pitches that he has in the past and is making less contact on pitches in the zone. This season he has swung at 27.8 percent of pitches outside the strike zone which is more than he’s ever swung at as a Yankee. Meanwhile, he’s making contact on just 83 percent of pitches he swings at  compared to 89.9 in 2010 and his career mark of 86.5.

It’s impossible for me to say what’s causing this. Perhaps now that he’s being counted on, along with Robinson Cano, to be this team’s offensive leader he is putting too much pressure on himself. Or maybe teams have begun focusing on him more now that he’s one of the Yankees two biggest weapons.

Either way, Granderson needs to sit down with Yankees hitting coach Kevin Long and figure out what he’s doing wrong and needs to fix it. The Yankees need him to be one of their offensive leaders. If he’s going to continue hitting .220/.314/.422 over the final two months while getting plenty of at bats at the top of the order, the Yankees are going to continue to struggle all the way to the finish line.

Yankees fans are starting to turn on Curtis Granderson and it’s not exactly hard to see why. His numbers are down from a year ago, his defense has taken a big hit, and Alex Rodriguez is on the DL (that last one is supposed to be a joke).

Granderson played one of the better seasons a Yankee has played in recent years last year when he hit .262/.364/.552. He also stole a few bases and more or less played solid defense. This year his numbers are down. He’s hitting .240/.335/.487 and his UZR has dropped along with it from negative-5.1 last season to negative-15.9 so far this year.

To make things worse, Granderson has actually struggled more as the season has progressed, hitting .220/.314/.422 since June 2.

One thing that has affected Granderson this year is that teams have begun shifting on him more often. We saw it right away this year when the Rays began using extreme shifts against him right away. It’s probably a big reason his batting average on balls in play of .279 is below his career norm of .308.

But Granderson’s biggest problem is not the shift or his BABIP. His problem is that he hasn’t been putting the ball in play nearly enough. His strikeout rate is going through the roof.

During his career, Grandy has struck out in 22.6 percent of his plate appearances. Not an impressive number, but it certainly wouldn’t be the worst in the league. In his first year with the Yankees he struck out 22 percent of the time. Then 24.5 percent last season and now it’s up to 27.9 percent this season.

Going back to June 2nd (when his numbers really dropped this season), he has struck out in a whopping 30.2 percent of his at bats. If it weren’t for a hot start, that number would be good enough for the 3rd worst in all of MLB.

Granderson’s problem is that he’s chasing more pitches that he has in the past and is making less contact on pitches in the zone. This season he has swung at 27.8 percent of pitches outside the strike zone which is more than he’s ever swung at as a Yankee. Meanwhile, he’s making contact on just 83 percent of pitches he swings at  compared to 89.9 in 2010 and his career mark of 86.5.

It’s impossible for me to say what’s causing this. Perhaps now that he’s being counted on, along with Robinson Cano, to be this team’s offensive leader he is putting too much pressure on himself. Or maybe teams have begun focusing on him more now that he’s one of the Yankees two biggest weapons.

Either way, Granderson needs to sit down with Yankees hitting coach Kevin Long and figure out what he’s doing wrong and needs to fix it. The Yankees need him to be one of their offensive leaders. If he’s going to continue hitting .220/.314/.422 over the final two months while getting plenty of at bats at the top of the order, the Yankees are going to continue to struggle all the way to the finish line.

Over the past couple of days Yankees fans have seen a lineup that featured Curtis Granderson and not Derek Jeter batting leadoff and it appears that, at least against righties, this is something that we should expect until further notice.

“You look at him against righthanders, and his on-base percentage is one of the highest on our club,” Joe Girardi told Erik Boland of Newsday. “When we face lefthanders, you might see it a little bit different.”

Granderson has indeed been very solid against righties this season, hitting .248/.344/.507 against them. Jeter struggles in comparrison, hitting .293/.342/.371 against righties.

Having Granderson bat first also splits up the righties as it’s usually one of their right handed hitting catchers batting ninth. So instead of it going Russell Martin-Jeter-Granderson (R-R-L) they are now split up.

“The key is you have some switch hitters and some righthanders in between guys,” Girardi said. “You don’t want to set it up for the other club just to bring in lefties to face you all the time. When you lose a guy like Alex, it makes it a little bit trickier to move your lineup around.”

It’s a minor change, but Joe Girardi typically reevaluates the lineup around this time each year. Last season he switched Robinson Cano and Mark Teixeira‘s spot in the order. It typically isn’t anything huge, but it is good to see the manager constantly reevaluating his decisions and looking to get whatever advantage he can get.